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South Korea-North Korea: North Korea's human rights abuses should be dealt with more urgently than its nuclear or missile programs, South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said Wednesday. Lee made the comment when he met a group of US lawmakers including Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said presidential spokeswoman Lee Miyon.
Comment: It is not clear whether and how much the government in Seoul is committed to pursuing human rights abuses in North Korea, but it is a vulnerability that the North is not well prepared to counter quickly. The nuclear and missile programs are long established issues for debate about which North Korea has well defined positions.
Human rights abuses can be of a different order, if the South Korean policy strategists get creative. The usual complaint against North Korea is that it has a large system of prisons for political prisoners and their family members who usually are worked to death.
A more telling accusation is that North Korea cannot feed its population, manifest in reports of executions for cannibalism. North Korea also has an insufficient supply of basic medicines, including aspirin. Health care in North Korea is not a government responsibility outside the large cities.
A carefully crafted pressure campaign on these and similar issues stands a good chance of catching the North off guard, skirts military concerns, and establishes a basis for dialogue. The North Koreans care for their children, sick and aged populations as much as any other Asian society and culture. All of these populations are under stress because of famine or near famine conditions plus the chronic lack of health care resources.
North Korea: North Korea appears to be technically ready to carry out a third nuclear test, an unnamed South Korean official said 23 May. Pyongyang will use its political judgment in deciding whether to conduct the test, the official said.
Comment: There is little context for this South Korean leak in open source materials. Last month the senior Chinese Leadership made it absolutely clear to a visiting North Korean Party official that no Chinese strategic interests are served by another North Korean nuclear test.
The limited but important political behavioral indicators suggest a North Korean nuclear test is not likely at this time.
China-Philippines: Update. China has deployed more ships to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. As of Monday night, there were five Chinese government ships -- up from three -- and 16 fishing boats in the area, the Philippine foreign department said.
Egypt: On the first day of the presidential elections, the huge turnout persuaded election officials to extend voting hours. At the close of this Watch, no reports of early returns are available. The election proceeded with no serious security incidents reported. Results are expected on Sunday.
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Afghanistan: Comment: The NATO leaders agreed to transfer combat operations to the Afghan Army by mid-2013. Only one news commentator recognized this as coded language for accelerating the end of the NATO military commitment to Afghanistan, 18 months early. An unidentified US general hastened to put the best face on the early withdrawal decision by insisting to the press that US forces would continue to fight the Taliban until the end of 2014. However, that is a decision for the Commander-in-Chief and the President overruled him. This fight ends a year from now.
Another news service reported an American official as taking bets on how long the Karzai regime would last after US combat forces left in 2014. Wrong question.
The relevant question is how long can the Karzai regime survive after all combat operations are turned over to Afghan forces? If the Afghans won't fight, there will not be enough NATO forces to hold Kabul for long.
As reported in other editions of NightWatch, the Soviet-backed client, Najibullah, survived for three years after Soviet combat forces withdrew. That is the measure of merit.
The Soviets equipped their Afghan clients with the same equipment Soviet forces used. They did not draw down stockpiles of obsolescent equipment to outfit their Afghan allies. Two reports this weekend relate how deeply the Afghans resent being treated as second-class allies, equipped with outdated gear US forces do not use. If these accounts are accurate, as they appear, they explain the increased fratricide among so-called allies.
The next year will be unpleasant and dangerous for any NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The good news is nobody wants to be the last man to die in this conflict.
Syria: Interior Minister Major General M. Ibrahim Shaar appeared on state-run television on the 20th to refute Free Syrian Army claims that he and five other top military and security officials had been assassinated. The FSA claim was carried by al Jazeera among other news services. Some of the other officials who supposedly are dead are Assistant Vice President General Hassan Turkmani, Defense Minister Dawood Rajha, and the President's brother in law and intelligence chief Asif Shawkat. All of these men are alive.
Comment: One of the fundamental rules of information operations is to not make claims that can be audited and evaluated independently. The Syrian opposition's web postings are not credible and the people making the postings are rank amateurs.
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