Iraqi Forces Retake Ramadi, Pledge to Retake Mosul Next

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi planted the national flag in Ramadi on Tuesday, marking the army's victory (NYT) in the city over militants of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, and pledged to retake Mosul in northern Iraq. Al-Abadi's visit comes a day after government forces retook most of the city (BBC), clinching a major victory and leading the Iraqi premier to pledge to rid the country of the Islamic State by the end of 2016. Al-Abadi called on Kurdish fighters to help Iraq's armed forces retake Mosul (Reuters), which the militant group seized in 2014. U.S. officials expressed confidence that Iraqi forces would hold Ramadi and said the military campaign should move quickly to not lose momentum against the Islamic State.

Ramadi Update

Fighting continues. Iraqi forces continue to make their way through Ramadi, street by booby-trapped street. While Baghdad was quick to declare victory on Monday over Islamic State fighters in the city after its forces took a key government building, there’s been no word on the status of other important landmarks including the Justice Palace and the Grand Mosque, while some neighborhoods in northern Ramadi have yet to be cleared. The end of the beginning. But once the clearing operations wrap up, the real fight for Ramadi begins. The city is the first prize in what leaders in Baghdad promise will be a continuing campaign to retake the cities of Fallujah and Mosul, which fell to ISIS in January and June, 2014, respectively. But FP’s Paul McLeary writes that the fighting -- which promises to be hard, and long . . . late Monday, Iraqi officials estimated the government controls about 75 percent of the city, while ISIS fighters still held many villages to the north, south and east of Ramadi. On Monday, U.S and coalition aircraft pounded multiple ISIS positions around Ramadi in seven different strikes, each containing multiple targets. They included five ISIS “tactical units,” eight “fighting positions,” two oil tanker trucks, a suicide car bomber, and others.

Iran Delivers Enriched Uranium to Russia

Iran delivered almost all of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to a Russian ship, fulfilling a major step (NYT) in the nuclear deal struck last summer. The shipment contained roughly 25,000 pounds of nuclear material that experts say would leave Iran without enough fuel to manufacture a nuclear weapon. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the move (BBC) “one of the most significant steps Iran has taken toward fulfilling its commitment.” U.S. officials say implementation of the nuclear deal, in which the United States would unfreeze some $100 billion in assets, could be weeks away. Meanwhile, a new U.S. law that curtails visa-free travel for some travelers who have visited Iran has sparked new diplomatic tensions (Guardian).

News You May Have Missed

• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order expanding retaliatory sanctions on Turkey. • The Iraqi army declared victory over Islamic State fighters in the Anbar province capital of Ramadi after retaking a key government complex. • Iraq's armed forces will next move to retake the major northern city of Mosul from the Islamic State, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said. • Two thousand Syrian Islamist rebel fighters are expected to leave besieged areas of southern Damascus in a deal brokered by the United Nations. • At least 32 people were killed and another 90 were wounded by a pair of bomb blasts in the Syrian city of Homs. • Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to hold a quadrilateral meeting during the first week in January also involving China and the United States on a comprehensive road map for a “meaningful peace” in Afghanistan. • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise stopover in Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. • The Russian economy shrank 4 percent on the year in November and 3.8 percent between January and November. • The Kazakh government approved its comprehensive privatization plan for 2016-2020. • China officially ended its "one child policy." • Two nuclear reactors at the Takahama nuclear plant in Japan have been authorized to restart after a Japanese court lifted an injunction. • Vast areas in Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil were hit by severe flooding, forcing more than 150,000 people to evacuate.

Ramadi ready to fall and the way ahead

Reports Monday said most of the remaining Islamic State fighters had fled the city for the outlying suburbs. The initial fight to clear the city might be the easy part, however. Once the shooting stops, the Shiite-led government in Baghdad will have to assert its authority over a shattered city full of distrustful Sunni residents, fearful of a majority Shiite army that does little to hide elements of Iranian influence. Government officials have pledged to hand over security in Ramadi to Sunni militias in the coming weeks, however. The operation should boost the confidence of the army, which has a long road ahead in moving on the ISIS-controlled cities of Fallujah and Mosul. The coming march through the Sunni heartland of Anbar province will be a test for how Baghdad controls the powerful Iranian-backed Shiite militias, who may already be prepping the ground in Fallujah. However, the fledgling caliphate will not be eradicated this year. A lack of reliable ground forces will hamper the anti-Islamic State campaign. The Islamic State’s conventional capabilities and territorial control will weaken as military operations intensify in Syria and Iraq. This does not portend a reduced threat in terrorism, however. The more the Islamic State's conventional capabilities weaken, the more actively the group and its affiliates will try to conduct terrorist attacks. Expect the Islamic State to encourage more grassroots attacks against soft targets beyond the Middle East, including in the West.

Iraqi forces retake center of Ramadi

Military officials in Baghdad today said they had seized the local government complex in Ramadi after six days of fighting to retake it after a brutal seven-month occupation by the Islamic State extremist group.  Officials cautioned that sporadic fighting continued elsewhere in the city.  Control over Ramadi would allow Iraq to cut off supplies to Falluja and make it difficult for the militants to hold that city.

Assad regime is prepared to meet in Geneva for peace talks

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said that the Assad regime is prepared to meet in Geneva for peace talks to resolve the country’s civil war. Those talks are set to begin at the end of January. "Syria is ready to participate in the Syrian-Syrian Dialogue in Geneva without any foreign interference," Muallem said, noting the regime is currently waiting on the “list of the opposition delegation.” "We hope that this dialogue will be successful to help us in having a national unity government.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said in an interview that the Russian air campaign will continue if the peace talks reach a ceasefire agreement. Such a ceasefire would be "meant to happen between parties of the Syrian domestic conflict," but "this doesn't mean an end to war on [the Islamic State] and other terrorist groups,” he told Russia’s Interfax news agency. Russia’s air campaign has mostly targeted Syrian rebel groups, not the Islamic State, and has resulted in severe and indiscriminate civilian casualties that could amount to war crimes, according to a new report by Amnesty International. Russian officials said today that one of three militants killed in a shootout in the North Caucasus on Tuesday had traveled to Syria for “terrorist training.”

The battle for Ramadi.

Iraqi forces are fighting Islamic State militants for control of Ramadi, the crucial western provincial capital. For the first time in months, Iraq’s military has reached the city’s center. Regaining control of Ramadi would deliver the biggest loss for Islamic State militants since they began their expansion across Iraq last year. Iraqi forces have ringed the city for months, but only kicked off their assault over the past several days after clearing rings of buried bombs before making the push. There’s no indication that the thousands of Iraqi troops will take the city soon, however. The bloody fights to retake the much smaller towns of Tikrit and Baiji earlier this year lasted months, and both required a scorched earth campaign to push the last ISIS holdouts out. Ramadi is a much bigger city, and carries much more symbolic weight, for both the Islamic State and Baghdad as either of those two towns, which only increases the prospects of a long, bitter struggle.

News You May Have Missed

• The French government is preparing for military action against the Islamic State in Libya in the first half of 2016, unnamed French defense officials said. • The next round of talks to end the conflict in Syria will take place at the U.N. European headquarters in Geneva early next year. • At least one person was killed and another injured by an explosion at Istanbul’s Sabiha Gokcen airport. • A U.S. drone strike targeted senior al Shabaab commanders at a training camp in Somalia's Shabelle region. • Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi extended the cease-fire between Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition for another seven days. • Turkish leaders were wrong to order the shooting down of the Russian warplane near the Turkish-Syrian border in November, the co-chairman of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party of Turkey, Selahattin Demirtas, following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. • The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 34 Russian and Ukrainian individuals and entities as part of Washington’s effort to pressure Russia to accept a diplomatic resolution in eastern Ukraine. • Ethnic Medhesis in Nepal vowed to continue protests at the country's border crossings with India. • Thailand’s military junta reiterated that it will hand back power to the people by July 2017. • The Venezuelan government has initiated legal action to invalidate the election of 22 opposition lawmakers to the National Assembly. • Mali's government declared a 10-day state of emergency in response to a number of threats from unnamed terrorist groups.

News You May Have Missed

• Iraqi troops advanced into the center of Ramadi as part of a final offensive to dislodge Islamic State fighters from the northern city. • A Taliban suicide attack near Bagram Air Field killed six NATO troops and injured three others, some of whom were U.S. soldiers. • Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry is proposing a ban on imports of 70-80 percent of Turkish consumer goods. • The United States and ASEAN are planning to hold a "special summit” on Feb. 15-16 in California. • The Indonesian government unveiled another set of economic stimulus measures, the eighth such package this year. • Nepal’s government agreed to amend its new constitution to address two key demands of Medhesi protesters, whose blockades over the past four months have choked off fuel and other imports from India. • Argentina's government in mid-January will enter negotiations with creditors still calling for repayment after the country's massive default in 2001. • At least two people were killed and three were injured near the Kenya-Somalia border after unknown attackers fired on a passing bus.

Iraqi Forces Advance to Center of Ramadi

Iraqi forces began their assault on the Islamic State-occupied city of Ramadi on Monday night and have advanced to the city center, according to Iraqi and U.S. military officials. "We went into the center of Ramadi from different axes, and we started clearing residential areas," Gen. Sabah al-Numani told the New York Times. Both Iraqi military and Sunni tribal forces are cooperating in the effort to retake the city. According to a tweet from Kuwaiti news agency Al Rai's international correspondent, the Iraqi government has said that U.S. Special Forces are participating in the attack as well

--
Jim Rabon
C: 703-772-6859
O: (888) 315-4314 Ext. 101
jmr06@paladin-ag.com

Sent from iPhone

--
Jim Rabon
C: 703-772-6859
O: (888) 315-4314 Ext. 101
jmr06@paladin-ag.com

Sent from iPhone

Afghan Town Falls to Taliban

The Taliban took over the Sangin district in Afghanistan's Helmand province a day after the region's deputy governor used social media to plead with the president for help in holding off the militant group (Al Jazeera). The fighting killed more than ninety soldiers in two days.

News You May Have Missed

• Decisions on a Syrian unity government must come within one to two months, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said.

• Hezbollah militant leader Samir Kantar was killed in a rocket strike near the Syrian capital of Damascus.

• The Iraqi government confirmed the accidental deaths of 10 Iraqi soldiers in a U.S. airstrike near Fallujah.

• Afghanistan's Helmand province could fall to the Taliban after months of heavy fighting, the province's deputy governor said.

• Yemeni peace talks concluded in Switzerland without an agreement to end the conflict, but negotiations will resume Jan. 14.

• Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev signed an order for counter-sanctions on Ukraine, effective on Jan. 1, in response to Kiev's implementation of EU and U.S. anti-Russia sanction regimes.

• The Central Bank of Azerbaijan floated the country's currency, the manat.

• Demonstrations involving thousands of people broke out in 20 cities across Poland protesting the right-wing Law and Justice-led government's plans to neutralize the power of the Constitutional Tribunal.

• Spain's Popular Party won the most seats in the recent legislative elections, followed by the Socialist Party, Podemos and Ciudadanos.

• A landslide hit the industrial park in Shenzhen, China, collapsing 22 buildings.

• U.S. military aircraft flew over Chinese-built artificial islands in the South China Sea's Spratly archipelago.

• Cambodian police arrested dozens of protesting garment workers and broke up the demonstration with a water cannon.

UN Security Council Struggles to Reach Syria Consensus

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council struggled to agree (Reuters) on a draft resolution that would endorse an international effort to end the five-year civil war in Syria. Western powers had hoped the council would approve the endorsement of a two-year road map (AP) for negotiations between Syria's government and opposition on a unity government expected to begin in January. The impasse comes ahead of a Friday meeting in New York where more than a dozen countries are expected to meet (NYT) to discuss a potential resolution to the conflict, as well as ways to counter the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

News You May Have Missed

• The U.S. Air Force has temporarily halted manned aerial missions inside a section of northern Syria where U.S. aircraft had been supporting rebel groups combating the Islamic State.

• Finance ministers from the 15 nations on the U.N. Security Council met to adopt a resolution aimed at disrupting the Islamic State's revenue streams from selling oil and antiquities, ransom payments and other criminal activities.

• U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter made a surprise visit to Afghanistan.

• The newly formed 34-nation military coalition to combat terrorism elected former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab as the coordinator of peace talks.

• Lawmakers from Libya's rival parliaments in Tripoli and Tobruk signed a U.N.-sponsored peace deal to form a unity government.

• Japan's central bank launched a surprise expansion of its stimulus efforts.

• The African Union's Peace and Security Council has agreed in principal to send troops to Burundi.

Iraq Refuses U.S. Offer of Troops, Helicopters

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi refused an offer made by U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter to provide Iraqi forces with expanded advisory support from U.S. troops and close air support from Apache helicopters. The support forces would expand the U.S. presence in Iraq to fight the Islamic State, but the Iraqi government is growing increasingly reticent to consent to an expanded U.S. role. "There are a number of complex relationships that the government of Iraq has to attend to. And we are here in Iraq at the behest of that government, so sometimes we have to adjust the things that we would do," said Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, head of the U.S. military’s Islamic State operations. "It's kind of hard to inflict support on somebody."

China Protests U.S. Sale of Arms to Taiwan

The United States announced it would sell $1.83 billion in arms to Taiwan (AP), including two warships, anti-tank missiles, and amphibious assault vehicles. The move drew swift rebuke from Beijing, which summoned a senior U.S. envoy (Al Jazeera) in protest and threatened to sanction the arms production companies. The authorization comes a year after Congress passed legislation approving the sale and marks the first such major arms sale to Taiwan in more than four years. The White House said there was no change in its longstanding “one-China” policy (Reuters).

U.S. Defense Secretary in Iraq

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter arrived in Baghdad on Wednesday where he plans to discuss steps to accelerate (Reuters) the U.S.-led campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Carter will meet with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Iraq's defense minister, and they are expected to discuss the Pentagon's offer to provide Apache helicopters (NYT) as well as military aid to retake the city of Ramadi. While the Obama administration has called for the ramp-up of the fight against the group, Iraqi leaders remain hesitant about U.S. military presence (AP) in the country.

News You May Have Missed

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will fly to New York on Dec. 18 for a meeting on the conflict in Syria.

• U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter arrived in Baghdad for talks with U.S. military commanders on intensifying the fight against the Islamic State. A day earlier, Carter pushed Turkey to do more in the campaign.

• Coalition airstrikes and Iraqi ground troops repelled 15 Islamic State car bombs aimed at Iraqi security forces east of Ramadi.

• Turkey is establishling a military base in Qatar.

• The leaders of Libya's rival parliaments met and rejected a U.N. peace deal, a day before moderates from both sides were expected to sign it.

• Yemeni rebels violated a cease-fire shortly after it took effect.

• The Greek parliament approved another reform bill demanded by the country's creditors in exchange for 1 billion euros in bailout funds.

• The Philippines Supreme Court delayed for a second time a decision on the legality of an agreement that would give U.S. forces access to Philippine military bases.

• U.S. prosecutors are preparing to charge Venezuela's National Guard chief with drug trafficking.

News You May Have Missed

• Saudi Arabia announced the formation of a 34-nation Islamic military coalition to combat terrorism. • Syrian President Bashar al Assad is expected to visit Tehran on Jan. 10. • At least seven people are dead in restive southeast Turkey after demonstrators clashed with security forces over curfews throughout the region. • The U.S. Embassy in Turkey in Ankara is limiting services Dec. 14-15 because of a possible security threat, an unidentified U.S. official said. • The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog is expected to close its 12-year investigation into Iran’s alleged secret nuclear weapons program . • Houthi rebels killed 42 private security contractors from Academi, better known as Blackwater, and two high ranking Gulf commanders in a ballistic missile attack in the Bab el-Mandeb region. • A cease-fire in Yemen took effect, according to a spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi militias. • The French teacher who said he was attacked by an Islamic State supporter Dec. 14 lied about what happened, according to French prosecutors. • The Obama administration is expected to authorize the sale of two guided missile frigates to Taiwan as soon as this week. • The Australian military is carrying out “freedom of navigation” flights over disputed islands in the South China Sea. • Seoul and Beijing will hold maritime demarcation talks next week aimed at resolving the issue of their overlapping exclusive economic zones. • CEFC China Energy Ltd. will acquire a controlling stake in KMG International, a fully-owned unit of Kazakhstan's state oil and natural gas firm KazMunayGaz. • In a surprise move, South African President Jacob Zuma replaced newly appointed Finance Minister David van Rooyen with the more experienced Pravin Gordhan, who served as finance minister from 2009-2014. • Unidentified militants fired rockets at the northern Malian city of Gao, home to a base for U.N. peacekeepers and a French regional anti-terrorism force. • The Colombian government and the FARC reached an agreement over reparations for victims, a key point in the peace talks aimed at ending the decadeslong conflict between the two.

Saudi Arabia Announces International Counterterrorism Force

Saudi officials announced today the formation of a 34-nation coalition to fight terrorism. The force will be based in Riyadh and include contributions from the Gulf Cooperation Council nations, Egypt, and Turkey, among others. All the participating countries belong to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and at least 10 other Muslim-majority countries have expressed interest in joining the force. Iran, Syria, and Iraq are not part of the coalition. The goal of the force will be to address "the Islamic world's problem with terrorism and will be a partner in the worldwide fight against this scourge" Saudi Defence Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said at a press conference.

Update - The War on ISIS

For well over a year now, President Barack Obama has asked the American public to take the long view on the war against the Islamic State. He’s argued that there is no quick and easy answer to a phenomena that draws in tens of thousands of recruits, holds sway over an area that includes a handful of large cities and a major oil producing region, and inspires bloody attacks in Europe and the United States. But that doesn’t mean the U.S.-led war is completely static. Over the last several weeks the White House has slowly increased the American involvement in the war, sending special ops forces into combat in Iraq and Syria, dropping more bombs on ISIS positions in November than at any time during the 16-month bombing campaign, and pressing allies to step up their involvement. Russian President Vladimir Putin and some western leaders have publicly hoped that the U.S. and its allies could find a way to partner with Russia to take on the Islamic State in Syria. But the Wall Street Journal reports that Russia's strategy of targeting civilians would make that a hard sell for many western political leaders. Russia, experts and officials the Journal spoke to said, indiscriminately drops unguided munitions on areas populated with civilians -- often in areas where the Islamic State doesn't operate -- in order to pressure Syrian rebel groups.

20 Women Elected to Local Office in Saudi Arabia

Women were allowed to vote and run for office in Saudi Arabia for the first time in municipal elections held on Saturday. Approximately 81 percent of the 130,000 women who were registered to vote cast ballots in the election, according to Saudi Arabia's General Election Commission. The elections were to select members for 284 municipal councils that provide local oversight of government projects and manage budgets for public facilities. At least 20 women won seats in Saturday's election, including four in Riyadh.

News You May Have Missed

• Turkey withdrew some of its troops deployed to a training camp near the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara and Moscow should continue to develop strategic ties and that the "mistake of a pilot" should not hurt bilateral relations.

• A Russian warship fired warning shots at a Turkish fishing vessel in the Aegean Sea to avoid a collision.

• An international conference in Rome aimed at ending the conflict in Libya has called on all rival factions to accept an immediate comprehensive cease-fire, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said.

• Islamic State forces are spreading from the group's stronghold on the Libyan coast to the interior of the country with the aim of seizing oil wells, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

• A teacher in a Paris suburb was attacked by an Islamic State supporter wielding a box cutter and scissors. 

• The far-right National Front failed to win a majority in any of France's 13 regions during the second round of regional elections.

• The European Union remains on course to extend sanctions against Russia, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said.

• Kazakhstan's currency, the tenge, plummeted 5 percent to a historic low of 322.47 to the U.S. dollar.

• India agreed to buy a high-speed bullet train from Japan.

• Thousands of Brazilians took to the streets to demand President Dilma Rousseff's ouster.

Climate Talks Extended Over Differences

Divisions over an international accord to combat climate change forced France, host of the COP21 climate conference, to extend the UN negotiations by a day (France24). Overnight discussions saw discord over how to share the costs of fighting climate change (Reuters) and shift to clean energy on a global scale. Delegates also said China resisted calls, led by the United States and the European Union, for all countries to update national plans for curbing greenhouse gas emissions every five years. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said he is aiming for a final draft Saturday (AP).

Russia's new naval reach

Russia's navy has been on a worldwide blitz, sending 70 ships across the globe from the Arctic to Gulf of Aden in a bid to impress the world with Russia's naval reach. But the U.S. Naval Institute spoke to experts who believe that the Russian navy's far-reaching presence and high operational tempo may not be sustainable. Russia has yet to fully modernize its aging naval fleet at a time when the Russian military has struggled to effectively maintain its weapons systems.

An "enduring" global U.S. counterterrorism presence?

The New York Times reports that White House has been mulling a Pentagon proposal to create a string of bases around the world for special operations and intelligence personnel to take the Islamic State and other jihadists, a move which some are hoping would create an "enduring" global U.S. counterterrorism presence. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey first represented the basing plan to the White House, but that the plan has gotten new legs as more jihadist groups around the world have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

News You May Have Missed

• Mauricio Macri has been sworn in as Argentina's new president, BBC reported Dec. 10. • Venezuela's ruling Socialist party is rushing through the appointments of 12 supreme court justices before it hands over control of the legislature to opposition lawmakers next year, AP reported Dec. 10. • According to Dubai-based Al-Arabiya news, all parties involved in the Syrian opposition meeting in Riyadh now agree that any new Syrian government should be more inclusive and should better represent all sectors of the Syrian population, a BBC translation said Dec. 10. • Germany has deployed 40 soldiers, two Tornado reconnaissance jets with surveillance technology and an A310 MRT aerial refueling jet to Incirlik air base in Turkey, AFP reported Dec. 10. • Iran's health minister says an outbreak of the H1N1 virus, also known as the swine flu, has killed 42 people and hospitalized 600 more across the country in the past month, AP reported Dec. 10. • A Kurdish-Arab coalition fighting the Islamic State in northern Syria has announced the formation of a political arm, AFP reported Dec. 10. • The European Union postponed a decision Dec. 9 on whether to renew the bloc’s economic sanctions against Russia after Italy called for a debate on the issue, RFE/RL reported Dec. 10.

News You May Have Missed

• The United Nations, the United States and Russia will hold trilateral talks Dec. 11 in Geneva on the crisis in Syria.

• Syrian opposition and rebel groups meeting in Riyadh are expected to discuss forming a delegation for future peace talks, one of trickiest aspects of the attempt to forge a unified position against Syrian President Bashar al Assad's government.

• The White House said that President Barack Obama has not yet approved the use of helicopters in Iraq, though Defense Secretary Ashton Carter earlier said the Pentagon is ready to do so.

• Algerian authorities foiled what they are calling a terrorist plot to bomb a popular singer's concert in northeastern Annaba province.

• Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu accused Russia of ethnic cleansing in parts of Syria, another example of how far Turkish-Russian relations have declined since Turkey's downing of a Russian jet on Nov. 24.

• The European Union postponed a decision on whether to renew the bloc's economic sanctions against Russia after Italy called for a debate on the issue.

• Japan needs to craft an integrated immigration policy to cope with its shrinking population, or it will risk losing out to a similarly aging China in competition for vital foreign workers, Japan's minister for administrative reform said.

• The Colombian rebel group National Liberation Army, or ELN, has ordered a 72-hour armed strike in Arauca, Casanare, and Boyaca departments.

• Seven people are dead after violence between unknown assailants and police broke out in the northwestern Cibitoke district of Burundi.

Taliban Siege in Kandahar Kills Dozens

At least fifty people, including ten Afghan soldiers, were killed in a Taliban siege (BBC) of Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan. Afghan forces regained control of the airport on Wednesday, a day after Taliban suicide bombers stormed a residential compound and military bases at the airport (Al Jazeera), which is used by Afghan, U.S., and NATO military forces. The attack comes as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani pledged to relaunch peace talks (WSJ) with the Taliban with the help of Pakistan, the United States, and China at a regional conference in Islamabad on Wednesday.

Iraqi Security Forces have made some progress in taking back Ramadi

Iraqi Security Forces have made some progress in taking back Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, from the Islamic State. The BBC reports that Iraqi forces have taken Tamim, a southwestern district across the Euphrates from the rest of the city. Sources tell the BBC that further progress may be difficult as the Islamic State appears to have mined the routes of approach with layers of improvised explosive devices. Pentagon officials have for months said that one of the biggest obstacles to retaking cities like Ramadi, Mosul, and Fallujah would be hacking through the defensive rings of buried bombs planned by ISIS fighters.

News You May Have Missed

• The U.N. Security Council will hold closed-door talks over Turkey's military operations in Syria and Iraq.

• Iraqi security forces have taken part of southwestern Ramadi from the Islamic State after months of fighting to secure territory around the city.

• Taliban militants stormed the Kandahar airport and an Afghan-NATO military base located within the same complex.

• Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi asked the Saudi-led coalition battling Houthi rebels to begin a seven-day cease-fire.

• Abdirahman Sandhere, a senior leader of al Shabaab, was killed by a U.S. airstrike.

• Five people were lightly injured after a hand grenade exploded at a central Moscow bus stop.

• Indonesian President Joko Widodo ordered his Cabinet to eliminate half of all existing government regulations in 2016.

• The Venezuelan opposition coalition has won 112 of the National Assembly's 167 seats, securing a two-thirds majority in parliament.

• Brazil's Federal Supreme Court suspended the Chamber of Deputies' proceedings creating a special committee to review the impeachment against President Dilma Rousseff.

More confusion over who is doing what in Syria.

Only two months after Russia’s entry into the air war over Syria, we’ve already seen close calls between American and Russian jets, a Turkish shoot down of a Russian bomber that strayed into Ankara’s airspace, and now accusations over which country apparently bombed a Syrian army base. Early Monday morning, Damascus complained to the United Nations that U.S. jets hit one of its bases in eastern Syria, killing three soldiers and tearing up an ammo depot. But as FP’s Paul McLeary reports, American officials say it ain’t so. One American military official said the Pentagon is “certain it was the Russians,” but has yet to produce any hard evidence of its certainty. So far, Moscow has been quiet on the issue

News You May Have Missed

U.S. federal law enforcement officials believe both shooters involved in the Dec. 2 attack in San Bernardino, California, had been radicalized for a long time before they opened fire on the city's Inland Regional Center. With 22 races still to be called, the Venezuelan opposition coalition has won 99 of the 167 seats in the legislature and is 12 seats away from a two-thirds majority. Cuba's $16 billion debt incurred from a 1986 default will be restructured under an expected deal with 15 creditor nations of the Paris Club. Russia is responsible for an airstrike on a Syrian army camp Dec. 6 that killed three soldiers and wounded 13 others, according to a U.S. military official. Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is rumored to be visiting Libya and may have arrived in Sirte on Dec. 3. Violence in the Pacific region of western Colombia has increased since the National Liberation Army and President Juan Manuel Santos failed to formalize peace talks in June. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said that most oil smuggled by the Islamic State is being transported through Turkey and that it must be stopped. Syrian authorities in the city of Homs released 35 prisoners ahead of a deal that is expected to bring about a cease-fire. Dozens of Jewish extremists protected by Israeli police stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. The joint commission tasked with monitoring the implementation of the draft nuclear resolution that Iran and world powers reached in July met in Vienna for a second round of talks.

News You May Have Missed

• A possible U.S.-led coalition airstrike in Syria killed four Syrian military personnel. • Iraq's Foreign Ministry called a meeting with the Turkish ambassador to demand Ankara pull out its troops deployed to the Nargizliya militia camp near Mosul. • The Arab League condemned the deployment. • Four British carried out a second set of airstrikes over Syria, targeting the Omar oil fields in the eastern part of the country. • Libya's two rival parliaments made an initial agreement to end the country's political crisis, Libyan officials said. • French military aircraft flew two reconnaissance missions near the Libyan towns of Sirte and Tobruk. • The governor of Aden was killed in a car bomb attack claimed by the Islamic State in Yemen's southern port city. • Electricity supplies to Crimea will restored soon, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said. • France’s far-right National Front party made record gains in the first round of the country’s regional elections, winning nearly 29 percent of the vote on a national level and finishing first in at least six of 13 regions. • The Greek parliament approved a 2016 budget, forecasting near zero growth for 2015 and a small contraction next year. • Police arrested a suspect following a Syria-related stabbing at the Leytonstone tube station in London. • Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma resigned.

Terrorism Update

The U.S. suffered its deadliest jihadist-linked terrorist attack since 9/11. Two attackers conducted a mass shooting at a conference center in San Bernardino, California, killing fourteen civilians and wounding at least twenty-three others. The shooters reportedly received inspiration from ISIS and maintained possible links to al-Qaeda (AQ). The lethality and sophistication of the attack demonstrates the threat that ISIS sympathizers can pose to the U.S. homeland even if they lack direct contact with the core organization. ISIS will continue to pose a direct threat to U.S. national security even if defeated in Iraq and Syria due to its robust network of regional affiliates and global supporters. ISIS and AQ have both experienced recent success in encouraging attacks in the U.S. and Europe. Both groups will continue to encourage and possibly resource further acts of terrorism, accelerating the threat posed to the U.S. and its allies. ISIS has repeatedly called for attacks against the West and AQ renewed its own calls for supporters to take action against the U.S. and Europe in a statement released by AQ leader Aymann al-Zawahiri on December 1.

ISW Update on Iraq

Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) recaptured the Palestine Bridge that spans the Euphrates River northwest of Ramadi on November 25. Operation Inherent Resolve spokesperson Col. Steve Warren highlighted the Palestine Bridge as critical for cutting the water supply route to Ramadi on November 5. With the capture of the bridge, ISF have made progress in encircling Ramadi, but they are not yet in a position to launch an operation to recapture the city center. The U.S.-led anti-ISIS Coalition has significantly increased the number of airstrikes targeting ISIS in and around Ramadi over the past two weeks, but operations to recapture the city, which have been underway since ISIS captured the city on May 18, continue to achieve slow progress. The recapture of Ramadi remains critical for the ISF and PM Haidar al-Abadi in order to maintain independence from Iranian proxy militias. Heavy Coalition support for the ISF offensive will be essential in order to both recapture urban terrain from ISIS as well as to demonstrate support for the ISF and for PM Abadi as he faces immense pressure from Iranian proxies to reject Coalition assistance.

A "political solution" in Syria-or any war-is meaningless unless the armed forces fighting accept it.

The framework for a political settlement in Syria, recently negotiated by the United States, Russia, Iran, and regional players in Vienna, is superficially impressive. It calls for a ceasefire, the establishment of a transitional government in six months, and new elections in 18 months. It does not specify which members of the Syrian armed and political opposition can participate in the process, however, or offer much incentive to make the most powerful groups want to do so. That is the main reason why it will fail to end the Syrian Civil War. The idea that international actors, all of which support local armed proxies but none of which have decisive military forces of their own on the ground, can impose a settlement on powerful warring groups without involving them in the discussion is baffling. Yet that is what this framework agreement proposes to do. It requires the external parties to agree on which members of the Syrian opposition - both armed and political-may participate. But the framework itself does not list mutually acceptable opposition groups precisely because the parties do not agree on such a list. The group's fortunate enough (or neutral enough) to gain the approval of the U.S., Russia, and Iran will certainly exclude many of the most powerful factions on the ground.

German Parliament Approves Anti–Islamic State Campaign

Germany's lower house of parliament on Friday overwhelmingly approved (DW) government plans to join the European military campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria. The German mission will send reconnaissance jets, a warship, and midair fueling capacity (NYT) to the region, but will not involve direct combat, such as airstrikes. The measure comes a day after the UK began conducting bombing raids (FT) on targets in Syria after gaining parliamentary approval. 

News You May Have Missed

• The Turkish and Azerbaijani governments have agreed to accelerate the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline project.

• OPEC will likely decide at its meeting to maintain its current production policies, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said.

• Turkey has granted France authorization to use Turkish airspace in the fight against Islamic State militants.

• The German parliament voted overwhelmingly to join the 60-nation combat operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

• The foreign ministers of Turkey and Russia met on the sidelines of a European security meeting today in Belgrade.

• At least 16 people were killed after unknown attackers hurled a Molotov cocktail into a Cairo nightclub.

• Ailing Algerian President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika is in France to undergo medical tests.

• Under pressure from EU member states and threatened with suspension from the Schengen passport-free zone, Greece agreed to cooperate with EU border agency Frontex for an operation at the Greek-Macedonian border.

• The European Central Bank pledged to continue its quantitative easing efforts to the tune of 60 billion euro ($648 billion) per month until March 2017 or beyond, ECB President Mario Draghi said.

• Danes voted against deeper EU integration in a referendum when they rejected an arrangement to opt in to EU Justice and Home Affairs rules.

• Colombia's lower house approved a proposal to ratify an eventual peace agreement with the FARC via a peace referendum.

• Brazilian leaders will meet Feb. 10 to discuss Bolivian President Evo Morales' plan to increase natural gas prices by 78.25 percent.

• Ecuador's National Assembly approved a constitutional amendment removing term limits on the presidency and other elected positions.

• Japan launched a study on introducing a state-of-the-art U.S. missile defense system, known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), to guard against North Korean ballistic missile.

UK Launches Anti–Islamic State Strikes in Syria

The UK began bombing targets (BBC) of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria hours after parliament authorized the airstrikes Wednesday. Strikes targeted oil fields (Guardian) that Prime Minister David Cameron says are being used to fund attacks on Western targets. Cameron has said that there are roughly 70,000 moderate opposition fighters in Syria ready to fight the militant group with the help of foreign air strikes, an assertion opponents of the bombing campaign have questioned (Reuters).

News You May Have Missed - 12/3/15

• The Kremlin plans to adopt additional sanctions on Turkey as punishment for the country’s downing of a Russian bomber last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his annual state of the nation speech. • Russia has halted negotiations with Turkey over the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, Russian Energy Minister Aleksander Novak confirmed. • Putin oversaw the launch of the first leg of a transmission line ensuring direct supplies of electricity from the Russian mainland to power-starved Crimea. • British bombers made their first airstrikes on Islamic State targets in Syria, hours after the British Parliament approved the operations. • The Syrian government and rebel forces agreed to a conditional truce in a district of Homs, breaking a three-year siege of the devastated Waer neighborhood. • Powerful Iraqi Shiite groups and militias said they would fight any U.S. forces sent to Iraq to fight the Islamic State. • China began construction on a $6 billion rail segment spanning Laos, a key part of a Chinese-backed infrastructure network that may eventually connect southern China with Southeast Asian ports as far away as Singapore. • Japan intends to continue intensive negotiations with Russia aimed at signing a peace treaty and resolving the territorial dispute over the Kuril Island, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said. • Vietnam and the European Union signed a free trade deal that removes nearly all tariffs on good traded between the two — a key part of Hanoi's South China Sea strategy. • The president of Brazil's lower house of parliament, Eduardo Cunha, accepted an impeachment motion against Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. • At least three people are dead after two suspected members of the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram detonated suicide bombs in an overnight attack in northern Cameroon. • Earlier, Cameroon announced that more than 100 members of Boko Haram were killed in an operation launched in November by the army and a regional task force that freed around 900 hostages.

Update - additional U.S. Special Forces for Iraq

The U.S. intensified its activities in Iraq and Syria by deploying additional Special Forces to Iraq. The deployment of reportedly up to 200 Special Operations Forces (SOF) with authority to engage in raids in both Iraq and across the border in Syria follows an intensification in U.S. activity under advise and assist in support of the Peshmerga in Iraq, including U.S. SOF accompanying Kurdish Special Forces on a raid on an ISIS prison near Hawija in Kirkuk province on October 22 and U.S. advisers assisting Kurdish forces recapture Sinjar, west of Mosul, from ISIS on November 12 and 13. The modest increase in U.S. activity comes as the ISF lay the groundwork for an eventual assault on Ramadi city. 

China, U.S. Discuss Cyber Espionage

China and the United States began a landmark first round of talks (FT) aimed at stopping cyber espionage between the two countries. The meeting comes as Australia blamed China (ABC) for a major cyberattack that caused a significant security breach at a federal bureau.

UK Parliament Debating Syria Strikes

The UK parliament will debate and vote Wednesday on a motion (Reuters) authorizing the extension of airstrikes (BBC) against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria. Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to win parliamentary approval despite months of opposition from Labour lawmakers (Guardian). Meanwhile, thousands of demonstrators protested outside parliament (Telegraph) and across the UK against the air strikes.

News You May Have Missed

• NATO foreign ministers formally invited Montenegro to start talks on joining the military alliance.

• NATO ended its suspension of the NATO-Russia Council in order to resume cooperation with Russia.

• Moscow published a list of economic sanctions on Turkey.

• Moscow has also suspended negotiations with Ankara on the TurkStream natural gas pipeline project and Turkey's Akkuyu nuclear power plant, an unnamed source familiar with the situation said.

• U.S. President Barack Obama said he expects Russian strategy in Syria to shift over the next several months as it seeks to avoid getting bogged down in the region, as it did in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

• The British Cabinet has endorsed Prime Minister David Cameron's request that Parliament vote on whether to begin airstrikes in Syria.

• Al Qaeda-linked Syrian militant group Jabhat al-Nusra released 16 Lebanese soldiers and policemen held hostage since August 2014 as part of a prisoner swap.

• Iraq's November oil exports averaged 3.37 million barrels per day, up from 2.7 million bpd in October and the highest they have been in decades.

• U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter announced that the United States will send a small force of U.S. soldiers to assist Iraqi and Kurdish troops fighting the Islamic State.

• Lebanese lawmakers failed for a 32nd time to elect a president.

• NATO allies agreed to maintain troop levels in Afghanistan at around 12,000 in 2016.

• Azerbaijani law enforcement launched an operation in Nardaran, a highly religious suburb of the capital of Baku and the site of violent clashes that left at least seven dead Nov. 26.

• The European Union is warning Greece that it faces suspension from the Schengen passport-free travel zone unless it implements changes to its response to Europe's migrant crisis by mid-December.

• Myanmar's ruling party will hand over power as planned to the opposition National League for Democracy, which swept the country's landmark elections in November, outgoing President Thein Sein said.

Germany Approves Military Mandate in Syria

The German cabinet approved plans (Reuters) for the country to join the military campaign against self-proclaimed Islamic State militants in Syria, agreeing to send reconnaissance jets, refueling aircraft, and up to 1,200 soldiers to the region (DW). The government said the move, which will be up for parliament vote as early as Wednesday, would not include air strikes or combat missions in Syria. The move follows French President Francois Hollande's appeal for an escalation of the international military effort against the militants (BBC), and is expected to garner enough parliamentary support to pass.

ANALYSIS "The German government seems to be coming to the conclusion that the only way to fight the 'Islamic State' (IS or ISIS) is to join an alliance with Bashar al-Assad, though at the same time maintaining the insistence that the Syrian president - who continues to barrel-bomb his own people - must go," writes Ben Knight for DW. "Most recently, after the devastating attacks in Paris on November 13, which the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, later claimed as its handiwork, Merkel declared resolutely, 'Freedom is stronger than terror,' and she pledged to join the French government in rooting out the attackers. In short, as could be expected from someone who is sympathetic to the European project, Merkel responded to the tragedy in Paris with a call for greater solidarity between Europe and its allies," write Claire Greenstein and Brandon Tensley for Foreign Affairs. "Meanwhile, in a civil war that became a proxy war - fought using Syrian blood, Syrian lives - military escalation brings its own momentum, as each power does what it takes to secure its own proxy and interests. Given this deadly, cynical dimension, there is no logic in bringing yet another country's firepower into the fray, especially as it's likely to push a political solution to this nightmarish war even further away," writes Rachel Shabi for Al Jazeera.

News You May Have Missed

• Germany's Cabinet approved a mandate offering military assistance, including the deployment of up to 1,200 German troops, to the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in Syria.

• Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that Iraq has enough manpower to fight the Islamic State and that his government would prefer — rather than more U.S. troops —more weapons, air support and training from its international partners.

• Russian Su-34 bombers flying missions in Syria began operating with air-to-air missiles.

• The Russian Finance Ministry supports the privatization of oil giant Rosneft, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

• U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Syria and Ukraine on the sidelines of the climate talks in Paris.

• Chinese manufacturing activity hit a three-year low in November.

• Chinese authorities ordered some 2,100 highly polluting factories to shut down in attempt to ease the hazardous levels of smog currently choking parts of the country.

• The Swiss government is nearing an agreement with the European Union over immigration restrictions, a year after Swiss voters approved immigration quotas.

• Colombia's armed forces and national police have killed the head of the leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army.

• Roch Marc Kabore won Burkina Faso's presidential election, likely making him the West African country's first new leader in decades.

CFR Daily Update

Paris Climate Talks Open Amid Global Rallies More than 150 heads of state arrived in Paris to kick off two weeks of high-level climate talks (Reuters) aimed at producing a long-term deal to reduce global carbon emissions. The conference, known as COP21, is the latest international effort (France24) on climate policy and is aiming reach an agreement to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Meanwhile, police detained hundreds (NYT) of demonstrators in Paris and placed two dozen environmental activists under house arrest, while some 600,000 people demonstrated against the conference in 175 countries around the world.

ANALYSIS "Failure to reach a deal in Paris could be disastrous, but not for the reason many might intuitively think. Leaders will mostly still try to pursue their national emissions reduction goals even if Paris is a seen as a flop. But the political environment in which they try to do that will be strongly influenced by the Paris outcome," writes CFR's Michael A. Levi. "Left unclear is whether the Paris agreement will include a binding compliance mechanism. One worry is that unaddressed cases of noncompliance could undermine the credibility of the UNFCCC process. Voluntary mechanisms to encourage states to meet their INDC pledges could help fill this gap," write CFR's Stewart M. Patrick and Naomi Egel. "The question is not whether Paris will deliver a deal. It will. Nor is the question whether Paris will secure sufficient commitments to limit global temperature rises to below two degrees Celsius. It won't. The real question is whether Paris can agree a credible mechanism to deliver an early, material increase in ambition that keeps the two degrees Celsius goal alive," writes Rob Bailey for the Council of Councils.

PACIFIC RIM IMF to Grant Yuan Reserve Status The International Monetary Fund is expected to grant China's yuan status as a reserve currency (Bloomberg) by adding it to the fund's Special Drawing Rights basket, which also includes the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. China had requested the move last year, but the yuan was considered too controlled to qualify until recently. MYANMAR: Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will meet outgoing President Thein Sein and the country's military chief to discuss political transition on Wednesday (WSJ), marking their first meeting since her party won a historic election earlier this month. This CFR Backgrounder offers a guide to understanding Myanmar.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA U.S. Embassy Issues Warning in Kabul A blast was reported in the Afghan capital of Kabul on Monday near the labor ministry office, and the U.S. embassy in Kabul issued a warning (IBT), saying it had received "credible reports of an imminent attack" within the next two days. The Taliban has conducted deadly attacks in Kabul in recent months, striking NATO troops and government offices in suicide bombings. INDIA: India's government is considering a compromise on a tax reform (ET) that could lead to the adoption of a controversial, long-stalled goods and services tax. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met opposition leader Sonia Gandhi on Fridayin a bid to break the deadlock.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Israel Suspends EU Role in Peace Process Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a suspension (AFP) of discussion with EU officials involved in peace efforts with the Palestinians following the bloc's decision to label goods from Jewish settlements in the West Bank. The EU considers the settlements illegal. SYRIA: Rescue workers reported that air strikes believed to have been carried out by Russian jets killed at least thirty people (Reuters) in the town of Ariha in northwestern Syria. Rebel-held areas near the Turkish border have reported intensified Russian air strikes and civilian casualties.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Pope Francis Visits Mosque in CAR Pope Francis Pope Francis visited a Muslim neighborhood (BBC) in the Central African Republic capital of Bangui on Monday on the final stop of his landmark tour of three African nations. CAR has seen intense violence between Muslim rebels and mostly Christian militias in the past few years. BURKINA FASO: Millions voted in Burkina Faso's first presidential and legislative elections (NYT) since a popular uprising removed President Blaise Compaore, who had been in office since 1987, last year. More than a dozen candidates are running for president.

EUROPE Turkey, EU Agree on Migrant Deal The European Union and Turkey agreed on a deal (FT) to stem migrant flows into Europe, including a three billion euro aid package and the prospect of revitalized EU membership talks for Ankara. The deal marks a significant step towards a more comprehensive European strategy on migration. This CFR Backgrounder provides insight into Europe's migration crisis.

AMERICAS UNASUR Presses Venezuela Ahead of Polls The Union of South American Nations, the body in charge of monitoring Venezuela's upcoming parliamentary elections, called on President Nicolas Maduro to launch a probe (MercoPress) into the death of an opposition politician who was shot on Wednesday at a rally. Maduro has also faced pressure from the Organization of American States, which has clashed with the president over election monitors. BRAZIL: Brazil's government announced it will sue (AP) mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale for $5.2 billion after the collapse of a dam at an iron ore mine left more than thirteen people dead and caused significant environmental damage.

CFR Daily News Brief

Turkey Downs Russian Warplane

Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday after it allegedly violated Turkish airspace (NYT). Moscow denied that the jet had left Syrian air space (Reuters), saying that the act was conducted by "accomplices of terrorists." The incident marks the first time (Guardian) Russia and a NATO country have exchanged direct fire over the crisis in Syria, and comes a day before Russia's foreign minister is slated to travel to Turkey amid strained relations over Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict (BBC). 

ANALYSIS

"It suggests that the much discussed arrangements to avoid incidents between warplanes over Syria are inadequate. The Turkish authorities will no doubt claim that such arrangements do not cover the approaches to their own airspace where tried and tested procedures should apply,'" writes Jonathan Marcus for BBC.

"Nato had already warned Russia over previous border infractions, and the US took 'deconfliction' steps to minimise the risk of accidental conflict. Now the Nato alliance and the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria find themselves facing exactly the kind of unplanned but inflammatory confrontation with Moscow they had been urgently striving to avoid," writes Simon Tisdall for the Guardian.

"Although the central issue of what happens to Mr Assad has not been resolved — and has been put aside in the diplomatic talks — western officials said Russia had been supportive of the ambitious timetable for seeking a transitional government and a ceasefire. The coming days would be a 'testing period' to see how serious Russia's intentions are, said one British diplomat," write Sam Jones and Geoff Dyer for the Financial Times.

PACIFIC RIM

Tribunal Hears South China Sea Claims

Lawyers for the Philippines will appear before an international tribunal in The Hague on Tuesday to seek a ruling (Guardian) on a series of territorial claims against China in the South China Sea. Beijing has said it will neither accept nor participate in the arbitration.

NORTH KOREA: A South Korean lawmaker said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un banished one of his top officials after a disagreement over policy (Bloomberg), sending him to a rural collective farm for reeducation.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

India and Singapore to Expand Cooperation

India and Singapore signed a joint declaration on a Strategic Partnership that would expand cooperation between the two countries (CNA). Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Singapore to commemorate fifty years of diplomatic ties.

PAKISTAN: Pakistan turned down an Afghan proposal to open a highway to India via the Wagah border during trade talks (ET), citing security reasons. Afghanistan in turn declined Pakistan's request for access to Tajikistan's border.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Kerry in Israel in Bid for Peace

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Israel Tuesday on a visit primarily focused on ending the recent violence between Israelis and Palestinians (AP). Kerry will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials before heading to the West Bank for talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

QATAR: Qatar's ruler, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, arrived in Mexico City (AFP) for talks with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on trade and investment. The trip marks the first by an emir since ties were established in 1975.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

U.S. Sanctions Burundi Officials

The United States will place sanctions (BBC) on four current and former officials, including the minister for public security and the deputy director of police, in Burundi for their connection to the continuing violence in the country. President Pierre Nkurunziza's pursuit of a third term has catalyzed violence that has left at least 240 dead since April.

TANZANIA: Newly elected Tanzanian President John Magufuli cancelled independence day celebrations to spend the funds on a clean-up campaign instead (AFP). The move comes amid a cholera outbreak that has infected an estimated five thousand people. Magufuli took power earlier this month and has introduced austerity cuts and crackdowns on public corruption.

EUROPE

Belgium Captures Paris Suspect

Belgium's federal prosecutor announced that police had detained a man (FT) suspected of involvement in the Paris terrorist attacks during a series of raids on Sunday night. The country's security services are still on a nationwide manhunt for Salah Abdeslam, whom they believe to be the only surviving Paris plotter.

AMERICAS

Canada Begins Refugee Resettlement

The Canadian government will announce details of its Syrian refugee resettlement plan (Globe and Mail) after a cabinet meeting Tuesday. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government campaigned on a pledge to take in 25,000 new asylum seekers by the end of the year.

HONDURAS: Five Syrians who entered Honduras on fake Greek passports last week requested asylum (BBC) from the government. Honduran police said the men did not appear to have any links to militant groups.

CFR Daily News Brief

TOP OF THE AGENDA Opposition Candidate Elected President in Argentina Conservative opposition candidate Mauricio Macri won http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=33ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0 on Sunday after campaigning for reforms to spur investment in the country's lagging economy. Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, defeated Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province and the leftist ruling-party candidate, in the runoff vote (NYT). Macri will become only the third non-Peronist leader since the end of military rule in 1983, marking a turn to the right (WSJ) in Argentina's government after twelve years of leftist power.

ANALYSIS "Macri, 56, has pledged to lift unpopular controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars and thus eliminate a booming black market for currency exchange. Doing that would likely lead to a sharp devaluation of the Argentine peso. With foreign reserves around $26 billion, low for such a large economy, the government would desperately need an immediate infusion of dollars,'" writes Peter Prengaman for the Associated Press. "The return to growth that his backers, and foreign investors, are anticipating won't be immediate. If anything, analysts are warning that things could get worse initially as the new president implements the kind of tough measures—cuts to the budget, a devaluation of the peso—that figure to further choke off consumer demand. Oxford Economics says gross domestic product will likely contract the next two years before rebounding to post growth of more than 5 percent by 2019," write Katia Porzecanski and Carolina Millan for Bloomberg. "Perhaps the biggest area where Mr Macri needs to effect change, though, is in Argentina's investment climate. Financial investors have cheered Mr Macri's rise and Argentine stocks and bonds have rallied on the prospect of change. But http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=34ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0. Mr Macri's job is to convert Argentina into a destination for real money and foreign direct investment rather than a hedge fund speculation," writes John Paul Rathbone for the Financial Times.

PACIFIC RIM China Pledges Funds to ASEAN China pledged $10 billion in infrastructure loans and $560 million in aid to southeast Asian states at the East Asia Summit (SCMP) in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend. Although many leaders raised concerns surrounding the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Beijing maintained that its reclamation projects would continue. This CFR Infoguide delves into the complex territorial claims of China's maritime disputes. JAPAN: An explosion at Japan's controversial Yasukuni Shrine Monday morning caused partial damage to the grounds (JapanTimes). The shrine, which honors war criminals among the 2.4 million killed in war, is regarded abroad as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Three Killed in Nepal Protests At least twenty-eight were hurt and three died in clashes (NYT) between protesters and police in southern Nepal over the weekend. Authorities had opened fire on demonstrators, who were blocking the country's main highway in protest over the nation's new constitution. BANGLADESH: Two senior Bangladeshi opposition leaders were hanged (NewsNext)for war crimes committed during the country's 1971 independence war with Pakistan after their pleas for clemency were rejected.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Kerry to Meet Saudi, UAE Officials U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is slated to hold talks on Syria (Reuters) with senior officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi on Monday. The discussions will focus on how to unify Syrian opposition groups ahead of a conference that will be hosted by Saudi Arabia next month. SYRIA: Two monitoring groups reported that Russian air strikes in Syria have http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=32ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0, including ninety-seven children, since September this year. CFR's Global Conflict Tracker sheds light on the Syrian civil war.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Second Group Claims Responsibility for Mali Attacks A second jihadist group from central Mali, the Macina Liberation Front, also claimed responsibility (France24) for the attack on a Bamako hotel that left nineteen people dead last week. The al Qaeda-linked group Al Murabitoun had first claimed responsibility as the country prepared for three days of national mourning. CAMEROON: At least nine people were killed in northern Cameroon in a suicide bombing (AP) by suspected Boko Haram militants over the weekend. The country is supporting a regional force to fight the militant group, whose six-year insurgency has killed an estimated twenty thousand people.

EUROPE Brussels Remains on Lockdown as Police Conducts Raids Belgian officials said they arrested at least sixteen suspects in nineteen raids (Guardian) on Sunday night in a bid to close down a terrorist network that authorities believed was plotting an attack. Paris attack suspect Salah Abdeslam remains at large as Brussels faces its third day of lockdown. FRANCE: French President Francois Hollande will urge U.S. President Barack Obama to intensify the military campaign (FT) against the self-proclaimed Islamic State during his visit to the White House on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the UK plans to boost its defense budget by seven percent for the next ten years (WSJ). Empowering the Sunnis of Iraq and deescalating the conflict in Syria are essential to curbing the rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, writes CFR's Philip Gordon in this op-ed.

AMERICAS Colombia Pardons FARC Guerillas The Colombian government announced it will pardon thirty guerrillas (BBC) of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia currently serving prison sentences. The government said the move was a confidence-building measure in its peace talks with the rebel group that have been taking place in Cuba for the past three years. This CFR Backgrounder looks at http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=22ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Kerry to Meet Saudi, UAE Officials U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is slated to hold talks on Syria (Reuters) with senior officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi on Monday. The discussions will focus on how to unify Syrian opposition groups ahead of a conference that will be hosted by Saudi Arabia next month. SYRIA: Two monitoring groups reported that Russian air strikes in Syria have http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=32ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0, including ninety-seven children, since September this year. CFR's Global Conflict Tracker sheds light on the Syrian civil war.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Second Group Claims Responsibility for Mali Attacks A second jihadist group from central Mali, the Macina Liberation Front, also claimed responsibility (France24) for the attack on a Bamako hotel that left nineteen people dead last week. The al Qaeda-linked group Al Murabitoun had first claimed responsibility as the country prepared for three days of national mourning. CAMEROON: At least nine people were killed in northern Cameroon in a suicide bombing (AP) by suspected Boko Haram militants over the weekend. The country is supporting a regional force to fight the militant group, whose six-year insurgency has killed an estimated twenty thousand people.

EUROPE Brussels Remains on Lockdown as Police Conducts Raids Belgian officials said they arrested at least sixteen suspects in nineteen raids (Guardian) on Sunday night in a bid to close down a terrorist network that authorities believed was plotting an attack. Paris attack suspect Salah Abdeslam remains at large as Brussels faces its third day of lockdown. FRANCE: French President Francois Hollande will urge U.S. President Barack Obama to intensify the military campaign (FT) against the self-proclaimed Islamic State during his visit to the White House on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the UK plans to boost its defense budget by seven percent for the next ten years (WSJ). Empowering the Sunnis of Iraq and deescalating the conflict in Syria are essential to curbing the rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, writes CFR's Philip Gordon in this op-ed.

AMERICAS Colombia Pardons FARC Guerillas The Colombian government announced it will pardon thirty guerrillas (BBC) of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia currently serving prison sentences. The government said the move was a confidence-building measure in its peace talks with the rebel group that have been taking place in Cuba for the past three years. This CFR Backgrounder looks at http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=22ms=NTAwODM0OTcS1r=NTg5Mzg0MTEzNDAS1b=0j=ODAzMTI1NDQ2S0mt=1rt=0.