Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 28

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - Octobe...: By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway:  Russian airstrikes near Aleppo targeted rebels from October 27-28 as the Syrian regime's ground offensives suffered setbacks. Syrian regime ground offensives against rebels in the southern countryside of Aleppo and against ISIS near the besieged Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City largely stalled following ISIS's offensive against the regime-held town of Safira in the southeastern Aleppo countryside on October 26. Russian airstrikes, however, largely concentrated in rebel-held areas south of Aleppo City and within the city center according to local activist reporting. Rebel forces have historically leveraged ISIS's offensives against the regime in Aleppo in order to advance against both the regime and ISIS elsewhere in the province. The intensity of Russian airstrikes in Aleppo may limit the Syrian opposition's ability to capitalize on regime's stalled offensive.

ISIS Contests Regime Supply Line to Aleppo City

ISIS Contests Regime Supply Line to Aleppo City: By: Christopher Kozak

ISIS launched a multi-phase counterattack against the Syrian regime and its allies in Aleppo Province which threatens the regime's control over its primary ground line of communication (GLOC) to Aleppo City. ISIS seized multiple checkpoints along the highway between the towns of Khanaser and Ithriya in southern Aleppo Province on 23 OCT. These gains blocked the route used by the Syrian regime to deploy reinforcements to Aleppo from Hama and Homs Provinces. ISIS subsequently initiated a major attack targeting the key regime-held town of Safira southeast of Aleppo City. Safira serves as a key node for Iranian military activity in Syria. The town also contains a complex of strategic defense factories implicated in the production of chemical weapons and 'barrel bombs' for the Syrian regime. ISIS fighters have reportedly advanced into the far-northern outskirts of Safira despite initial deployments of regime reinforcements to the area.

The Islamic State and Russia

The Islamic State is going on a recruiting binge in Russia's Dagestan province with hundreds of jihadists reportedly signing up to fight for the Islamic State in Syria, according to the AP. The number of Russians who have fought with the Islamic State is estimated at around 2,500 overall, but police and intelligence officials also estimate that between 419 and 700 fighters from the group have returned to Dagestan, where authorities worry they could use their skills and contacts to carry out attacks at home.

Russia and NATO

The Wall Street Journal reports that NATO is mulling a plan to put more member state troops under its command and deploy them eastward towards Russia. The move, which could involve sending up to 4,000 troops to Poland and the Baltics, is designed to signal that the alliance remains committed to defending its territory against Russia even as the conflict in Ukraine has become relatively quieter in recent weeks.

The world is becoming more violent — here are the most and least peaceful countries

According to an annual report from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), Botswana, Kuwait, Morocco, Kazakstan, Vietnam, Angola, and Burkina Faso all have one surprising thing in common: they are more peaceful than the US.

The Global Peace Index from the Institute for Economics and Peace compiles yearly rankings of 'peacefulness' in 162 nations worldwide based on 23 different types of data.​

The Institute for Economics and Peace attempts to answer a simple question: Is the world getting more or less peaceful?

While the most peaceful nations in the world are growing more peaceful, with some reaching historic highs, the least peaceful countries are descending further into chaos and war.

The report also includes an analysis of the economic impact of containing and dealing with the consequences of global violence. Last year violence containment was estimated to be $14.3 trillion which is approximately 13.4% of the world's gross domestic product.  

Of the top 20 peaceful countries in the world, 15 are located in Europe. Greece rose 22 places, and the United Kingdom rose eight, after diminishing their military presence in Afghanistan.

The US sits in the middle tier of the ranking due to long-running international military campaigns, unparalleled levels of incarceration, homicide, and colossal military spending. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - Octobe...

ISW Blog: Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - Octobe...: By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway:  The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) resumed reporting of airstrikes in Syria on October 26, following a hiatus of reports about airstrikes from October 23-25. The Russian MoD claimed to carry out "59 sorties" from October 24-26 in the Syrian provinces of Idlib, Latakia, Homs, Damascus, Aleppo, and Deir ez-Zour. Russian airstrikes from October 25-26 largely supported regime ground offensives against Syrian rebels near the al-Ghab Plain in northwestern Hama Province and south of Aleppo City. Meanwhile, ISIS captured sections of the road between Khanasser and Ithriya in southeastern Aleppo Province from October 22-26 and claimed to sever the regime supply route to Aleppo City amidst ongoing regime advances near the besieged Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo. The Russian MoD claimed airstrikes near the city of Palmyra in central Syria; however, local reporting has not yet substantiated these claims. ISW therefore does not consider the Russian MoD reports concerning Palmyra to be credible at this time. No high-confidence Russian airstrikes occurred against ISIS's positions during the reporting period. Meanw hile, the U.S. Coalition did not report airstrikes in Syria from October 24-26, an unusual break in the pattern of reported airstrikes following the U.S.-Russian MOU concerning air safety protocols over Syria.

Iraq Update

More boots, more bombs. In the wake of Defense Secretary Ash Carter's assertion on Friday that U.S. ground forces will see more combat in Iraq, comes word that defense officials are considering whether to embed troops with Iraqi units closer to the fight. The troops, according to the options being drawn up at the Pentagon, would also have the ability to call in airstrikes, something that top military leaders have mentioned as a possibility for much of the past year.

China Condemns U.S. Warship in South China Sea

A U.S. Navy-guided missile destroyer sailed into waters (SCMP) claimed by China in the disputed South China Sea on Tuesday. The move drew a rebuke from Beijing, who accused the United States of a "deliberate provocation." The USS Lassen, completing the first in a series of planned freedom of navigation operations, had approached an artificial island built by China on the Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands archipelago, where the Chinese government has also constructed other military airstrips (NYT). The naval maneuver comes a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping, and U.S. President Barack Obama failed to reach an agreement during a meeting in Washington on China's territorial claims (Reuters), which are disputed by the Philippines, Vietnam, and other Asian countries.

ISW Blog: Warning Update: ISIS Exploits Israel-Palestine Con...

ISW Blog: Warning Update: ISIS Exploits Israel-Palestine Con...: By Harleen Gambhir, Analyst, Institute for the Study of War ISIS escalated efforts to inspire terror attacks in Israel over the past we...

ISW Blog: Iraq Situation Report: October 21 - 26, 2015

ISW Blog: Iraq Situation Report: October 21 - 26, 2015: by: Patrick Martin, and ISW Iraq Team

U.S. to Conduct More Raids Against Islamic State, Russian Air Campaign Struggles

U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said on Friday that the U.S. military will conduct "more raids" like the one that freed nearly 70 Kurdish prisoners last week. U.S. forces will be "in harm's way, there's no question about it, and I don't want anybody to be under any illusions about that," he said, despite Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook previously calling the raid "a unique circumstance.

Russian planes have encountered difficulties maintaining their operational tempo in Syria, with as much as a third of its attack aircraft and half of its transport aircraft grounded in need of repairs at any time.

ISW Blog: Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - Octobe...

ISW Blog: Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - Octobe...: By Genevieve Casagrande Key Takeaway: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) discontinued the release of official reporting on airstri...

Syria Update - Russian Air Campaign in Syria Faces Criticism amid Push for Diplomacy

Russia's air campaign in Syria is facing growing international criticism. The International Committee for the Red Cross noted on Wednesday that  airstrikes were making it more difficult to reach areas in need of medical aid, and on Thursday the Syrian-American Medical Society, which operates several medical facilities in Syria, said at least nine hospitals have been hit by Russian bombs. Speaking before the U.N. Security Council yesterday, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power condemnedRussia's campaign, which she said is adding to the deaths and displacement of civilians and strengthening the Islamic State. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this morning for preliminary talks before meeting with Saudi and Turkish officials to discuss the situation in Syria. A Russian official suggested yesterday that Moscow supports early elections in Syria designed to give Bashar al-Assad a political mandate.

ISIS Update - 70 Prisoners Freed in Joint U.S.-Kurdish Raid, One U.S. Soldier Killed

U.S. Special Operations Forces and Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga conducted a joint raid on an Islamic State prison in Hawija, Iraq, on Thursday. Defense officials say valuable intelligence on Islamic State operations was recovered and nearly 70 prisoners were recovered, though not the individuals U.S. and Kurdish forces expected to find. One U.S. soldier was killed in the attack, the first U.S. combat death in Iraq since 2011. Three Kurdish fighters were wounded.

U.S. involvement in the operation was authorized by U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and the White House was informed of the plan. The Baghdad government was not notified in advance of the operation. The Peshmerga "were going with or without us," a U.S. defense official told the New York Times. "We wanted to stand behind an important ally." U.S. Special Operations Forces have conducted operations against the Islamic State in Syria, as when they captured senior Islamic State figure Abu Sayyaf in May, but this is the first reported incident of U.S. forces participating in combat in Iraq. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook stressed that the raid does not prefigure a greater combat role for the United States. "This was a unique circumstance in which very close partners of the United States made a specific request for our assistance," he said. "So I would not suggest that this is something that's going to now happen on a regular basis."

ISW Russian Military Operations Update

Russia reached an understanding with the U.S. on air safety guidelines in Syria on October 20, but Russia's aggressive maneuvers against U.S. aircraft and violations of Turkish airspace are likely to continue in order to keep U.S. air power in the Middle East in check. Russia hosted Bashar al-Assad in Moscow on October 20 in order to reinforce Russia's position as Assad's top sponsor. Russia continued efforts to project military force elsewhere in Middle East at the expense of U.S. influence in the region. Russia called for an expansion of technical military cooperation with Egypt and Iraq and established a "hotline" with Israel to deconflict air operations in Syria. Russia is using the sale of attack helicopters in multiple instances as a platform by which to compete with the U.S. for military partnerships. 

Meanwhile, Russia reinforced its strategic partnership with Iran by agreeing to host a senior military delegation in Moscow in late October. New reports that Cuba has deployed forces to support Russia's campaign in Syria would further underscore the emergence of a Russian coalition in the Middle East that will compete with the U.S.-led coalition if confirmed. Russia will likely continue to aggressively confront the U.S. and its allies until the U.S. withdraws from Syria or takes more direct steps to challenge Russia's freedom of action. 

Russia also pursued deeper bilateral and multilateral military alliances in the former Soviet Union. Moscow revealed plans to establish a joint "military organization" with Belarus in response to NATO activity in Eastern Europe. Russia signed an agreement with other former Soviet states to form a joint border patrol force, possibly for deployment to the Afghan-Tajik border, which President Vladimir Putin framed as a gateway for terrorists to expand into Central Asia. Russia made overtures to Afghanistan, suggesting that Russian military assistance would be more effective at supporting Afghanistan's counterinsurgency than the presence of U.S. troops. Russia views the Afghan-Tajik border as another front for military competition with the U.S. 

Syria Update

For the first time since his troops began a violent crackdown on street protests in 2011 that would lead to a catastrophic civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has traveled abroad, and where else could he go but Moscow? In a surprise meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the two leaders talked about Russian support for his regime, and agreed to keep their fight against Assad's enemies going.

Assad didn't stay long, and was backin Damascus by Wednesday. In brief public remarks, the two leaders agreedthat their fight against terrorist groups in Syria is necessary, and that some kind of unspecified political solution between all sides is the only way forward. The trip reflects the renewed confidence that Assad feels after some 50 Russian warplanes and hundreds of Iranian troops have joined the fight against an array of Islamist and rebel groups fighting to push him from power.

ISW Iraq Situation Update

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iranian proxy militias have made rapid progress in Baiji. The ISF, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'a militias, and a number of non-Iranian proxy militias have recaptured key territory since Baiji operations were announced on October 14. ISF and the "Popular Mobilization" have recaptured Siniya, a town west of Baiji which security forces have had difficulty recapturing in the past. Both a Joint Operations Command spokesperson and Kata'ib al-Imam Ali, a proxy militia, claimed that Baiji city had been retaken, though fighting is ongoing in parts of Baiji and in the Baiji Oil Refinery, north of the city. The rapid progress of the Baiji operation gives Iranian proxy militias significant leverage over Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, as they will use their prominent position in the operation's initial success to exert greater influence over the course of the anti-ISIS fight and Iraq's security sector writ large. Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri stated that the proxy militias will turn their attention towards Anbar once Baiji operations conclude. However, fighters from a number of Iranian proxy militias are advancing north towards Sharqat district, the last ISIS-held district in Salah ad Din province, and Hawija, the ISIS stronghold in Kirkuk province. Proxy militias will attempt to capitalize upon a message of their success in Baiji compared to a lack of success of ISF forces backed by the U.S.-led coalition in Ramadi. Initial success in Baiji may not be permanent. Baiji is a critical location that remains exposed to counterattacks by ISIS. ISIS could launch attacks on Baiji and reassert itself in the area once the presence of security forces has diminished.

Taliban offensives, everywhere.

The Taliban are most definitely on the move, and are fighting it out with Afghan forces in several parts of the country. Just days after taking over an entire district in the northwestern province of Faryab, fighters have now captured the district's security chief and surrounded an Afghan Army base with several hundred soldiers.

While the fighting in the north and west is as widespread as it has been since the U.S. invasion in 2001, newly emboldened Taliban forces are making a push in the south as well, overrunning checkpoints near Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of southern Helmand Province. "Helmand's capital appears to be under serious military pressure," a Western official told Reuters. "We're hearing reports about civilians fleeing in large numbers." There is also new fighting in the western Herat province near the Shindand air base.

The assaults across the country come just as new Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour consolidates his grip on power after a contentious start to his reign, where some Taliban leaders questioned his authority to lead in the wake of public revelations of the death of the legendary founder of the group, Mullah Omar.

When Selfies Are a Tool of Intelligence

Meet the new intel analysts. Welcome to the age of the selfie war, where intel analysts and armchair military watchers scrape the open Web for news of troop movements, ship transits, and planeloads of weapons being shipped to suspect regimes around the world. FP's Elias Groll surveys the new landscape, and finds that some longtime intel analysts are as surprised as anyone by the amount of information that ordinary Russian grunts in Syria and Ukraine regularly share on social media. The explosion in publicly available satellite imagery has gone a long way in making this kind of intel gathering possible, but it also comes with a downside.

Ruslan Leviev, a 29-year-old Russian who founded what he calls the Conflict Intelligence Team, leads a half-dozen staffers in trying to piece together the digital dust being left behind by Russian service members in Syria. "We are not journalists. Are we combatants? It certainly seems so," he told FP, admitting that he has received death threats, and calls from Russian authorities looking to find out more about what he's doing.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/19/when-selfies-are-a-tool-of-intelligence/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report

Here's what you need to know today

1. Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau beat Conservative incumbent Stephen Harper to become Canada's new prime minister, marking the first change in leadership in nine years.

2. Around 3,000 migrants stranded at the border of Serbia were finally allowed to cross into Croatia on Monday afternoon.

3. Russian officials have acknowledged that Moscow's intervention in Syria is focused on bolstering Syrian President Bashar Assad after Russia had initially said it intervened in Syria to help defeat ISIS.

4. Thousands gathered in Dresden in eastern Germany to mark the first anniversary of the anti-migrant Pegida movement, and thousands more came out in counterprotest.

5. NATO is conducting its largest military exercise in more than a decade, involving around 36,000 troops, ships, and aircraft in the central Mediterranean, amid growing threats from Russia and ISIS militants.

6. Amazon is creating more than 100,000 jobs across its centers in the US for the holiday season.

7. Oprah Winfrey took a 10% stake in Weight Watchers and joined its board, sending the stock up 105%.

8. An ISIS training camp for children has reportedly been discovered in Istanbul following raids over the weekend that led police to detain around 24 children of Tajik and Uzbek origin believed to be receiving militant training in basement apartments.

9. Oscar Pistorius, the Paralympic gold medalist convicted of killing his girlfriend, will spend the rest of his sentence under house arrest.

10. Oslo wants to ban private cars from its city centre by 2019 as part of a plan to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 50% by 2020 compared with 1990 levels.

What You Need To Know Today

1. Chinese gross domestic product grew by 6.9% during the third quarter, its slowest quarterly growth since 2009 but still beating expectations by 0.1%.

2. Typhoon Koppu is battering the Philippines for a second day, leaving two dead and thousands homeless.

3. Henriette Reker was elected as mayor of the German city of Cologne, the first woman to hold this post, just one day after she was stabbed at a campaign event by a man who was angry about letting migrants into Germany.

4. Canadians vote for their next prime minister on Monday, with Conservative incumbent Stephen Harper fighting for his fourth term in power against Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, the son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau.

5. At least 40 Islamic State fighters were killed in an airstrike in Syria on Saturday, according to the UK's Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

6. United Continental, the No. 2 US airline by capacity, is remaining silent after its new CEO was admitted to the hospital on Thursday for an unspecified reason.

7. The police seized documents and computer hardware from Volkswagen offices in Paris and northern France over an investigation into the company's use of software to cheat on emissions tests. 

8. Four people were killed after a small plane crashed into a bakery in Colombia just minutes after taking off.

9. Air France will trim fewer than 1,000 jobs next year, which is less than the expected 2,900 job cuts that led angry employees to attack airline managers earlier this month.

10. British parents can now block the passports of their teenage children who they think might be at risk of traveling to Syria or Iraq to join Islamic State militants.

ISW Update: Russian Airstrikes in Syria:

The Russian air campaign in Syria continues to bolster the Syrian regime's fight against the opposition. Russian warplanes provided air support to regime ground offensives against rebels in Aleppo, Latakia, northern Hama, and Damascus Provinces from October 17-18. Russian airstrikes largely concentrated in the southern Aleppo countryside as regime forces, backed by Iranians, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shi'a militias, and other Iranian proxies, advanced south of Aleppo City. In addition, Russian warplanes heavily targeted rebel positions amidst ongoing regime ground offensives against the rebel-held pocket around the towns of Rastan and Talbiseh in the northern Homs countryside which has been besieged by regime forces since 2012, as well as against rebel forces in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus. 

The following graphic depicts ISW's assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFBztIPzTtgS5a-sQp7tRjRS_jEcHLch7Hu9LCLt1xJbSeLLw-s06rbR8SlM4Osrf4uosVyOl8oDGwVkvyiE3dPK1zq0gglymHOyBzUGbpJTjpJ6ZQzAbJU-pwxFuDPv39XzA-7STBJ7Y/s1600/Russian+Airstrikes+18+OCT-01.png

 Read this update online 

10 important things in the world right now

1. European leaders are giving Turkey easier access to visasin return for stemmingthe flood of migrants into Europe.

2. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the escalation in violence between Israelis and young Palestinians in October, which has resulted in multiple deadly stabbings.

3. Seven migrants were killed, including four children, after their boat collided with a Greek coast-guard vessel.

4. Investors are anxiously waiting for Monday's release of China's third-quarter GDP report, which economists predict will indicate growth at its slowest quarterly pace since 2009.

5. Iran submitted information about activities related to its nuclear program to the International Atomic Energy Agency as part of a deadline outlined by a nuclear agreement reached with six world powers in July.

6. Turkey and the US are talking about strengthening cooperation against Islamic State militants and Russian activities in Syria.

7. Russia may reestablish its control over Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan in response to increased activity by Islamist insurgents near its borders with Central Asia.

8. Theranos, a $9 billion health startup, has reportedly stopped using finger pricks to collect blood samples for all except one of its tests, under pressure from US federal regulators. This follows an explosive report from The Wall Street Journal saying there were problems with the accuracy of the company's theoretically revolutionary blood testing technology, called Edison.

9. Oscar Pistorius has been granted house arrest after serving nearly one year of a five-year sentence for killing his girlfriend.

10. Animals-rights groups are outraged after Denmark euthanized and publically dissected a healthy baby lion in front of children.

And finally ...

Astronomers found a strange pattern of light around a distant star that looks as if it was made by aliens.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30, 2015 - October 14, 2015

Russia's involvement in Syria is facilitating ISIS's territorial gains, while also strengthening Assad. Russia is supporting the Syrian regime's offensives in Latakia, the al-Ghab Plain, and northern Hama. Russia also intensified strikes on rebel-held northwestern Aleppo, likely to set conditions for an imminent Russian-Iranian-Syrian regime offensive in the area. U.S. defense officials and local Syrian activists reported the arrival of hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Quds Force fighters and other Iranian proxy forces in Aleppo over the past few days. Russian strikes largely concentrated along the rebel-held supply route leading to the besieged regime enclaves of Nubl and Zahraa northwest of Aleppo City. If the regime can link with these enclaves, they will successfully sever the rebel-held supply route from Aleppo City to the Turkish border. Simultaneous regime offensives in both Hama and Aleppo Provinces will likely fix rebel forces along multiple fronts and prevent them from reinforcing their positions across northwestern Syria, resulting in a loss of terrain for the Syrian opposition.

ISIS is benefiting from Russia's strikes on the Syrian opposition. On October 9, ISIS advanced 10 kilometers against rebels in northeastern Aleppo, the largest advance by ISIS in the province since August 2015. ISIS continued to conduct probing attacks against rebels northeast of Aleppo City from October 10-14. The Syrian regime and ISIS have historically leveraged one another's offensives in order to advance against rebel forces in the northern Aleppo countryside. Both ISIS and the regime will likely capitalize on the effects of Russian airstrikes on rebels. Russian airstrikes have thus far failed to deter ISIS from launching new offensives and rather have facilitated ISIS's seizure of new terrain. 

- See more at: http://www.understandingwar.org/map/russian-airstrikes-syria-september-30-2015-october-14-2015#sthash.kuBcvPc9.dpuf

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

1. European Union leaders will try to persuade Turkey to approve a plan to help host over 2 million refugees during Thursday's summit on Europe's migrant crisis.

2. Israelis are panic-buying guns amid a growing number of knife and other attacks by young Palestinians since the start of October.

3. Leaked audio from inside Joaquín"El Chapo" Guzmán's prison cell reportedly shows how apparent his escape should have been to guards when the Mexican drug lord broke out on the night of July 11.

4. The US and Russia are nearing a deal to set up safety protocols in the skies above Syria, after planes from the two countries passed within miles of each other over the weekend.

5. The US Justice Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation are looking into the business models of daily fantasy-sports websites, two weeks after major daily fantasy outfits DraftKings and FanDuel got caught up in a scandal over whether employees were using inside information to win on competitor sites.

6. Tesla is rolling out its Autopilot function in a software update on Thursday, which will enable newer Tesla models to automatically steer, change lanes, and parallel park.

7. Scientists have discovered a protein that appears to be key in the development of Alzheimer's disease, which could provide a new drug target for dementia.

8. Netflix's international subscription base grew by 2.74 million during the third quarter, but the company blamed disappointing US subscriber growth on the transition to chip-based credit and debit cards, which require users to update their payment information online.

9. Puerto Rico and and the US are in discussions to restructure the commonwealth's $72 billion (£46.5 billion) debt.

10. The payment-processing company Square, led by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, has filed for an initial public offering.