The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iranian proxy militias have made rapid progress in Baiji. The ISF, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'a militias, and a number of non-Iranian proxy militias have recaptured key territory since Baiji operations were announced on October 14. ISF and the "Popular Mobilization" have recaptured Siniya, a town west of Baiji which security forces have had difficulty recapturing in the past. Both a Joint Operations Command spokesperson and Kata'ib al-Imam Ali, a proxy militia, claimed that Baiji city had been retaken, though fighting is ongoing in parts of Baiji and in the Baiji Oil Refinery, north of the city. The rapid progress of the Baiji operation gives Iranian proxy militias significant leverage over Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, as they will use their prominent position in the operation's initial success to exert greater influence over the course of the anti-ISIS fight and Iraq's security sector writ large. Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri stated that the proxy militias will turn their attention towards Anbar once Baiji operations conclude. However, fighters from a number of Iranian proxy militias are advancing north towards Sharqat district, the last ISIS-held district in Salah ad Din province, and Hawija, the ISIS stronghold in Kirkuk province. Proxy militias will attempt to capitalize upon a message of their success in Baiji compared to a lack of success of ISF forces backed by the U.S.-led coalition in Ramadi. Initial success in Baiji may not be permanent. Baiji is a critical location that remains exposed to counterattacks by ISIS. ISIS could launch attacks on Baiji and reassert itself in the area once the presence of security forces has diminished.
