CFR Daily Update

Paris Climate Talks Open Amid Global Rallies More than 150 heads of state arrived in Paris to kick off two weeks of high-level climate talks (Reuters) aimed at producing a long-term deal to reduce global carbon emissions. The conference, known as COP21, is the latest international effort (France24) on climate policy and is aiming reach an agreement to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Meanwhile, police detained hundreds (NYT) of demonstrators in Paris and placed two dozen environmental activists under house arrest, while some 600,000 people demonstrated against the conference in 175 countries around the world.

ANALYSIS "Failure to reach a deal in Paris could be disastrous, but not for the reason many might intuitively think. Leaders will mostly still try to pursue their national emissions reduction goals even if Paris is a seen as a flop. But the political environment in which they try to do that will be strongly influenced by the Paris outcome," writes CFR's Michael A. Levi. "Left unclear is whether the Paris agreement will include a binding compliance mechanism. One worry is that unaddressed cases of noncompliance could undermine the credibility of the UNFCCC process. Voluntary mechanisms to encourage states to meet their INDC pledges could help fill this gap," write CFR's Stewart M. Patrick and Naomi Egel. "The question is not whether Paris will deliver a deal. It will. Nor is the question whether Paris will secure sufficient commitments to limit global temperature rises to below two degrees Celsius. It won't. The real question is whether Paris can agree a credible mechanism to deliver an early, material increase in ambition that keeps the two degrees Celsius goal alive," writes Rob Bailey for the Council of Councils.

PACIFIC RIM IMF to Grant Yuan Reserve Status The International Monetary Fund is expected to grant China's yuan status as a reserve currency (Bloomberg) by adding it to the fund's Special Drawing Rights basket, which also includes the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. China had requested the move last year, but the yuan was considered too controlled to qualify until recently. MYANMAR: Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will meet outgoing President Thein Sein and the country's military chief to discuss political transition on Wednesday (WSJ), marking their first meeting since her party won a historic election earlier this month. This CFR Backgrounder offers a guide to understanding Myanmar.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA U.S. Embassy Issues Warning in Kabul A blast was reported in the Afghan capital of Kabul on Monday near the labor ministry office, and the U.S. embassy in Kabul issued a warning (IBT), saying it had received "credible reports of an imminent attack" within the next two days. The Taliban has conducted deadly attacks in Kabul in recent months, striking NATO troops and government offices in suicide bombings. INDIA: India's government is considering a compromise on a tax reform (ET) that could lead to the adoption of a controversial, long-stalled goods and services tax. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met opposition leader Sonia Gandhi on Fridayin a bid to break the deadlock.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Israel Suspends EU Role in Peace Process Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a suspension (AFP) of discussion with EU officials involved in peace efforts with the Palestinians following the bloc's decision to label goods from Jewish settlements in the West Bank. The EU considers the settlements illegal. SYRIA: Rescue workers reported that air strikes believed to have been carried out by Russian jets killed at least thirty people (Reuters) in the town of Ariha in northwestern Syria. Rebel-held areas near the Turkish border have reported intensified Russian air strikes and civilian casualties.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Pope Francis Visits Mosque in CAR Pope Francis Pope Francis visited a Muslim neighborhood (BBC) in the Central African Republic capital of Bangui on Monday on the final stop of his landmark tour of three African nations. CAR has seen intense violence between Muslim rebels and mostly Christian militias in the past few years. BURKINA FASO: Millions voted in Burkina Faso's first presidential and legislative elections (NYT) since a popular uprising removed President Blaise Compaore, who had been in office since 1987, last year. More than a dozen candidates are running for president.

EUROPE Turkey, EU Agree on Migrant Deal The European Union and Turkey agreed on a deal (FT) to stem migrant flows into Europe, including a three billion euro aid package and the prospect of revitalized EU membership talks for Ankara. The deal marks a significant step towards a more comprehensive European strategy on migration. This CFR Backgrounder provides insight into Europe's migration crisis.

AMERICAS UNASUR Presses Venezuela Ahead of Polls The Union of South American Nations, the body in charge of monitoring Venezuela's upcoming parliamentary elections, called on President Nicolas Maduro to launch a probe (MercoPress) into the death of an opposition politician who was shot on Wednesday at a rally. Maduro has also faced pressure from the Organization of American States, which has clashed with the president over election monitors. BRAZIL: Brazil's government announced it will sue (AP) mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale for $5.2 billion after the collapse of a dam at an iron ore mine left more than thirteen people dead and caused significant environmental damage.