Ramadi ready to fall and the way ahead

Reports Monday said most of the remaining Islamic State fighters had fled the city for the outlying suburbs. The initial fight to clear the city might be the easy part, however. Once the shooting stops, the Shiite-led government in Baghdad will have to assert its authority over a shattered city full of distrustful Sunni residents, fearful of a majority Shiite army that does little to hide elements of Iranian influence. Government officials have pledged to hand over security in Ramadi to Sunni militias in the coming weeks, however. The operation should boost the confidence of the army, which has a long road ahead in moving on the ISIS-controlled cities of Fallujah and Mosul. The coming march through the Sunni heartland of Anbar province will be a test for how Baghdad controls the powerful Iranian-backed Shiite militias, who may already be prepping the ground in Fallujah. However, the fledgling caliphate will not be eradicated this year. A lack of reliable ground forces will hamper the anti-Islamic State campaign. The Islamic State’s conventional capabilities and territorial control will weaken as military operations intensify in Syria and Iraq. This does not portend a reduced threat in terrorism, however. The more the Islamic State's conventional capabilities weaken, the more actively the group and its affiliates will try to conduct terrorist attacks. Expect the Islamic State to encourage more grassroots attacks against soft targets beyond the Middle East, including in the West.